Golden Globes 2020 Nominations - Thoughts/Analysis

An interesting awards ceremony both in terms of its significance but also occasional randomness that can either stand out as an indication or anomaly with regards to where the awards season is headed. Let's take a look. Bold indicates films I've seen. 

Nearly half of the Motion Picture nominees are distributed by
Netflix - Marriage Story, The Two Popes,  Dolemite is My Name and The Irishman

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1917
The Irishman
Joker
Marriage Story
The Two Popes

Pretty much as expected here, might've expected Little Women to make it in but late releases tend to have a bigger hurdle to getting in at the Globes, which thus bodes well for 1917 solidifying itself as a Best Picture lock. Interesting to note that there are THREE Netflix releases here - putting The Two Popes right back on the contenders list - , so whichever one of these wins will possibly have an impact on who they choose to back most heavily over the next few months. Decent lineup based on what I've seen so far - Irishman was masterful, Marriage Story was strong albeit flawed, Joker was not my cup of tea but can see the appeal - and I can see all of them making it in to the Academy's final 10. Half-expected Richard Jewell to get in, and the snub for Ford v Ferrari hurts its chances slightly.

Will win: The Irishman

Should win: The Irishman 

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

The category is surprisingly strong when it comes to legit Oscar contenders, with Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood having been mainstays over the awards circuit thus far and asserting their status as bonafide contenders, and Knives Out also making a surprising bit of noise. Having seen all five of these films, this is a fine set of choices, having liked to loved all of them, though I do think this might be where Dolemite and Rocketman's recognition will come to a stop, and if Uncut Gems had continued to be placed in this category I definitely think it could've gotten in. Oh yeah and seems like Cats isn't really going to be a thing...yet. *shudders*

Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should win: Jojo Rabbit 

Could legendary Korean director Bong Joon-ho replicate
his Cannes success at the Globes?

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Another good lineup from what I've seen so far, would be a great lineup if Phillips' BTEC Scorsese flairs weren't put in the same category with the master himself (was rooting for a surprise Rian Johnson nom to mix things up maybe), the other nominees though are terrific, Bong and Marty in particular, and from what I've heard and seen on 1917 so far we'll have nothing to complain about 1917 from the technical level at the very least. The Safdie brothers and Greta Gerwig missing out here could mean something, could mean nothing, but both their films especially the former's Uncut Gems could've used an extra push beyond just the critics awards. 

Will win: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Should win: Anyone but Phillips

Is this the year of Judy Garland and the Clown?

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and GloryAdam Driver, Marriage StoryJoaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Speaking of Uncut Gems Adam Sandler missing out is both surprising but not that detrimental, at least not towards him specifically, but Christian Bale getting in for Ford v. Ferrari definitely spices things up a bit, even if the film not being nominated for Best Drama could count against his overall chances. Even if he ultimately doesn't get in it means that things are more competitive than it might seem. Pryce needed this to keep momentum, and Robert de Niro missing out for The Irishman is a bit strange considering that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association definitely seemed to embrace the film otherwise. With regards to the quality of the performances here, Banderas and Phoenix were both very good, Bale was excellent in a role out of his usual wheelhouse, and Driver was fantastic, Pryce unseen, he deserves to win this in a cakewalk. 

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Should win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story 

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

Cynthia Erivo, HarrietScarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little WomenCharlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

I'll admit I completely blanked on Judy campaigning in Drama, good thing is that the Globes don't seem to love the film (which is aggressively mediocre), bad thing is that they seem to love her (admittedly quite strong) performance, so we could see a Rami Malek part 2 here albeit without the insane hype of Bohemian Rhapsody. The only other nominee I've seen is Johansson who like her co-star Driver is fantastic, and deserves her nomination and the win, other nominees unseen. Erivo is clinging onto a thin thread with her film underperforming in general and needed this to stay in the mix, while Ronan and Theron are in pretty comfortable positions at this point to continue to put their names in the mix. 

Will win: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Should win: N/A (but I prefer Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story)

Could Bond and future Bond girl shake things up via one
of the year's biggest crowdpleasers?

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Daniel Craig, Knives OutRoman Griffin Davis, Jojo RabbitLeonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodTaron Egerton, RocketmanEddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Terrific quintet of performances here and also, one of the few times where they've nominated five legitimately 'musical or comedy' performances without any cheating. Out of them all I only think DiCaprio has a legitimate chance at an Oscar nomination, though if Murphy wins then the narrative could change, but regardless all five gentlemen give excellent performances, particularly happy to see young Davis get some deserving recognition for his lovely performance. 

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

Should win: Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit 

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Awkwafina, The FarewellAna de Armas, Knives OutCate Blanchett, Where’d You Go Bernadette

Beanie Feldstein, BooksmartEmma Thompson, Late Night

From what I've seen also a pretty god category, though I wish they'd have gone for Kaitlyn Dever instead of Feldstein (who was admittedly pretty good too). Ana de Armas is a lovely surprise, I doubt it'll translate to much down the line individually but her getting recognition for her performance and helping Knives Out get more traction is only a good thing. Awkwafina continues to maintain a consistent enough presence on the awards circuit and I do think she'll win here (touchwood). 

Will win: Awkwafina, The Farewell

Should win: Awkwafina, The Farewell 

Pitt or Pesci?
J-Lo or Laura D?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the NeighbourhoodAl Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The IrishmanBrad Pitt, Once Upon A Time In HollywoodAnthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Hate to see Willem Dafoe miss out for The Lighthouse which was never going to be a big player at this particular awards event anyway, but oh well. Otherwise the quartet I've seen so far are three terrific supporting performances in my top 5, and an excellent co-leading performance from Pitt. Pacino and Pesci getting in together helps solidify the potential for them to both get into the Oscars together, and maybe Hanks will break his 20-year Oscar spell (crazy isn't it?) Hopkins is a bit of a wild card now, the HFPA clearly loved his film but we'll see if other awards groups share that love. 

Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should win: Al Pacino, The Irishman 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Annette Benning, The ReportMargot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, HustlersKathy Bates, Richard JewellLaura Dern, Marriage Story

Some annoying misses, Zhao Shuzen for The Farewell and either of the ladies from Jojo Rabbit would've made for great nominations, but I suppose this is fine from what I've seen so far. Easily prefer Jennifer Lopez's performance over Laura Dern's (never thought I'd be saying something like this lol), glad to see that Robbie is campaigning for a more substantial role as opposed to her minuscule one in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bates could be a thing, Benning looks like her film is really losing steam by the day but could potentially sneak back in to awards season. Florence Pugh for Little Women could be hurt by this snub but I feel like she'll bounce back with a slew of noms soon enough. 

Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story 

Should win: N/A (but I prefer Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers to Dern)

Which one of these acclaimed scribes - Quentin Tarantino
or Noah Baumbach - is going to nab a win? 

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

ParasiteThe Two Popes

Predictable lineup, not in a bad way at all as the three I've seen are good/great screenplays, with Parasite in particular being the best written film of the year I've seen so far. A miss out for Jojo Rabbit and Taika Waititi, but don't forget that this category is divided into two for the Oscars into Adapted and Original. Expected Knives Out and maybe The Farewell to make an unexpected splash here but the resurgence of Two Popes has cancelled that out. 

Will win: Marriage Story

Should win: Parasite 

Will Thomas Newman win for 1917 two decades after his first nomination
for American Beauty? Is there going to be a Taylor Swift v Elton John showdown?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1917

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Motherless Brooklyn

Thomas Newman could possibly win here en route to potentially being the Oscar success story/rewarded veteran, hopefully it will be him instead of Hildur Ingveldar Guðnadóttir for Joker which while is more deserving of recognition anyway. Marriage Story and Motherless Brooklyn both have pretty solid scores, and the latter I expect could be a potential Academy spoiler. Somewhat disappointed not to see the likes of Avengers: Endgame, A Hidden Life and especially Parasite and Us show up but this isn't a bad lineup so far, and my desired ones probably have some issues with voters over how much pre-existing music is implemented in the score. 

Will win: Joker 

Should win: N/A 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Beautiful Ghosts” – CATS“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman“Into the Unknown” – Frozen 2
“Spirit” – The Lion King“Stand Up” – Harriet

I actually have already listened to the Taylor Swift song from CATS and I do actually quite like it, so far as Oscar bait songs like that go it's a pretty good one. Like the Rocketman choice, not a fan of the Lion King original song, and it's a shame they couldn't have nominated one of the songs from smaller films like "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from Wild Rose. 

Will win: “Into the Unknown” – Frozen 2

Should win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman

The Lion King was nominated in the Animated Feature
category. Seems like there's room for unnervingly creepy cats after all.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

The Lion King
Missing LinkToy Story 4

A bit of a meh lineup from what I've seen with a couple of decent sequels and a completely unnecessary live-action remake. Honestly don't have all that much investment in this particular awards race. 

Will win: Toy Story 4

Should win: Toy Story 4

Parasite probably and deservedly has this in the bag. Can Pain and Glory and
The Farewell keep gaining awards season momentum? 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The FarewellLes Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite

Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Now this is interesting, you have the big power player Parasite, Cannes darling and Banderas' vehicle Pain and Glory, and The Farewell which won't be eligible in this category for the Oscars but nevertheless getting in here is a boon. Then there's the French duo which I am very interested in seeing but unfortunately missed my chance at the LF.

Will win: Parasite

Should win: Parasite