Best Picture
The Favourite
First Man*
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born*
Widows
At this point in time it seems like the latest remake of A Star is Born may well be the film to beat, given that the previous versions have all been fairly successful with the Academy, it's received critical acclaim and mounds of box-office success, and is directed by an Academy darling. It also seems like the very type of film that's primed for a backlash of sorts in the near future. It's been awhile since Spike Lee's come back into the awards fray and his latest, BlacKkKLansman, looks like it could just about make the cut. Chazelle v.s. Jenkins seems to be in play with First Man receiving strong reviews, albeit not quite on La La Land levels, and If Beale Street Could Talk getting raves, that should propel both films to something of a lock on a nomination (though anything could happen). For the more 'unconventional' choices that Academy seem to be increasingly open towards in recent years, the heist thriller Widows and arthouse darling Yorgos Lanthimos's take on period drama The Favourite seem like strong contenders based on initial response, while on the more classic side of things the crowd-pleasing Green Book looks like it could end up as a strong contender. Finally, with the Mexican Foreign Language film entry Roma Netflix may finally make it into the big dog category with the help of awards success, and almost universal raves.
Thoughts on what I've seen thus far:
I liked BlacKkKlansman and definitely wouldn't mind seeing it get some awards love, and really liked A Star is Born which hit me in all the right sweet spots, so to speak, as a very much 'my type' sort of film. First Man is easily my favourite of the top contenders I've seen so far, and it's a shame that Chazelle's low-key approach, which I found even more compelling than his established sort of style with Whiplash (which I quite love) and La La Land (which I liked but have issues with), has not resulted in box-office dividends and doesn't seem to be gaining quite the amount of traction I'd expected.
Dark Horse: The Mule
Never overlook a Clint Eastwood motion picture. Regardless of quality, and this looks like it could potentially be a real gem.
Watch out for: Vice; Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Leave No Trace; The Hate U Give; Eighth Grade
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, First Man*
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born*
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
I'd say that Cuaron is pretty much a lock at this point, and if he hadn't previously won for Gravity I'd almost consider him a lock to win, given that almost all of the universal praise for Roma has been centered on his work. Instead I'm predicting Jenkins to go all the way to the win, in a sense 'rewarding' him as director after awarding Moonlight Best Picture back in 2016. Though by all accounts his direction is great in itself. Chazelle seems like a lock unless the backlash really becomes that severe, Lanthimos looks to be their 'out-of-the-box' choice this year given that his films have also gained quite a bit of awards traction over the years, and Cooper's directorial debut is sure to garner him some love in this category, if the film continues to steam ahead.
Thoughts on what I've seen thus far:
Chazelle's work is a career-best and easily my win for Direction this year so far, and Cooper makes a very strong impression for a first-time director. Both would be deserving, though of course I still have many of the auteurs in contention to see.
Dark Horse: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman*
Lee's no stranger to antagonizing people on the awards circuit but who knows. The timely nature of his film and the 'comeback' narrative could work well in his favour.
Watch out for: Steve McQueen, Widows; Adam McKay, Vice; Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Debra Granik, Leave No Trace; Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade; Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born*
Ryan Gosling, First Man*
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
The very nature of Gosling's performance, even more low-key and understated than usual, means that while he's pretty much a lock for a nomination, there's virtually no chance of him winning despite ticking the boxes of playing a real-life figure, Neil Armstrong, and having a very emotionally potent role (though not in the typical sense). Cooper, on the other hand, is playing a very Oscar-y character, alcoholic and musician, and with the acclaim he's garnered seems like the closest we have to a prospective winner. Looking to possibly upset is Rami Malek's portrayal of Freddie Mercury and Viggo Mortensen's meaty role as an Italian American bouncer in a beloved film that's looking to make quite a splash, both looking to make quite a big impression on the circuit. Then there's Bale, something of an unknown quantity, but given he's playing a real-life figure, and based on the trailer giving quite the transformation, BIG sort of performance, seems like he'll be a shoo-in if the reviews are at the very least positive.
Thoughts on what I've seen thus far:
Gosling here actually gives my favourite performance out of his recent, very excellent post-2015 output, and it's a shame that it will possibly be strangely 'underrated' for a nominated performance. Cooper is phenomenal too, breathing new life into a role we've all seen before and giving possibly his best performance to date.
Dark Horse: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed*
They may well have shot his chances down with the early, early release date, but if A24 campaign hard enough we may well see the criminally underrated Hawke and his brilliant portrayal of a conflicted priest gain enough traction to slide into a nomination.
Watch out for: Christian Bale, Vice; Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased; John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman; Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun; Ben Foster, Leave No Trace*; Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Best Actress
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Viola Davis, Widows
Glenn Close, The Wife*
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born*
Even though she has the 'overdue' factor hanging over her head, I'm not so sure that Close is a lock for a nomination, let alone a win. Critical response to The Wife and her performance seemed rather muted and like Albert Nobbs a few years back, I could see the passion behind her campaign being more of a respectful nod towards her career, but without the win. Instead, Lady Gaga in her first major film role is my prediction, though I'm also banking on the Academy paying it love in dividends. The Academy love Viola Davis and reviews seem to put a guarantor on this, McCarthy seems to be going through the 'comedians going serious' route which they absolutely love, and as for Olivia Colman, I think she could most possibly win given her status as a respected veteran actress, and the huge acclaim she's received for her performance across awards groups and critics.
Thoughts on what I've seen so far:
I thought Glenn Close was pretty decent and Lady Gaga was terrific. Honestly been a really strong year thus far for the category, though, and one of the performances I hope might sneak in would be...
Dark Horse: Toni Colette, Hereditary*
How fitting would it be for Colette to return to Oscar contention with another film that's kinda about seeing dead people, but not quite exactly. Though I find the film itself rather flawed in many regards, notably its ending, Colette is extraordinary in it, giving a heartbreaking, viscreal and incredibly powerful performance worthy of any hard-hitting family drama, while also granting the horror elements of the film such pathos through her no-holes-barred, daring performance.
Watch out for: Yalitz Aparico, Roma; Julia Roberts, Ben is Back; Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex; Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots; Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk; Carey Mulligan, Wildlife; Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born*
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Sam Rockwell, Vice
So by (I assume) category frauding Ali into supporting, Universal have opened up two potential winners in the acting categories for their awards season darling. Now Ali won just two years ago in the same category so I doubt they'll hand it over to him again, though who knows. Sam Elliott I think will get in despite the relatively small nature of his role in a huge awards player, Sam Rockwell I think will be basking in the afterglow of his last win, as will Daniel Kaluuya in his last nomination with many critics praising his villainous performance as one of Widows' highlights. It's veteran British character actor Grant who I'm pegging for the win though, with critics citing his turn as one of the highlights of a widely praised film.
Thoughts on what I've seen so far:
I've only seen Elliott, who indeed has a very limited role, but every one of his scenes are some of my favourites in the film, including some heartbreakingly delivered lines and one particularly impactful reaction shot.
Dark Horse: Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Horsnby I've heard is one of the most unanimously praised parts of a film that while somewhat going under the radar, has found much praise, and even the less enthusiastic reviews seem to be ravishing him with acclaim. Look to him to potentially spoil the party.
Watch out for: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther*; Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman*; Russell Crowe, Boy Erased; Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy; Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy, First Man*
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
I think we're looking at a double nomination for The Favourite ladies given that critics seem to be tending towards praising both rather than highlighting one over the other. Claire Foy's found a great deal of praise, is in a huge awards contender and also a pretty awards-friendly role as the concerned housewife, and if all goes well expect to see Amy Adams back in the awards season fray again. My prediction for winner is King, who's been cited as a standout from Beale Street, and who also has that 'respected character actress' narrative that always works super well in the supporting categories.
My thoughts on what I've seen thus far:
I was surprised how much I liked Foy in First Man despite the trailers making me feel somewhat uneasy about how it would pan out, and how little actual focus she gets within the film. I'd love for her to win, competition unseen thus far.
Dark Horse: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Again, banking on a lot of Widows love, but since I've heard barely any negative comments about it, and the fact that Debicki, perhaps equally to Kaluuya and even more so than Davis, has been frequently thrown around as one of the main highlights of the film in terms of her performance and character arc, we could see a surprise nomination for the young Aussie actress.
Watch out for: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased; Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun; Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots; Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians*; Dianne Wiest, The Mule; Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man*
Widows
A Star is Born*
Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Sorry to Bother You
Here I'm just banking on the big awards player, and the crowd-pleaser, as garnering the share of plaudits. It's usually a bit harder to predict these categories at this early stage; brb with more when the season begins to really kick in.
