(Very Early) Oscar 2020 Predictions

Bold indicates my prediction for the winner; * indicates films I've already seen.

Best Picture

1917
The Farewell*
Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit 
Little Women 
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*
The Two Popes

With how eclectic these last two years' Best Picture lineups have ended up in terms of not just style and genre, but also quality, audience appeal and critical reception, all bets are off this year for the Best Picture race so it seems. I wouldn't even say any of these films are 100% locks at this point besides Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which I'm pegging for the win. Relatively safe bets seem like the perennial ambitious war picture in the form of 1917, the little indie that could in The Farewell, the TIFF crowdpleaser of Jojo Rabbit, the distinct period pieces of Little Women and Ford v Ferrari, and recent years have shown a more welcoming attitude to including foreign language films in lineups which bodes well for the incredibly well received Palme D'Or Korean critical darling Parasite. Netflix has itself three horses in the race this year with the prestige picture The Two Popes, domestic drama Marriage Story and gangster picture The Irishman, so it remains to be seen if they'll campaign intensively for all three or choose two, or even one to focus upon.

Potential dark horses can be found in the likes of A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood* and Judy* if the Academy leans more towards honouring the stars of entertainment with Mr Rogers and Judy Garland, or The Report and Bombshell if they want to play the timely agenda cards. And who knows, Joker could just as likely get in as many of the current ostensible contenders; it's been a divisive film but the positive reviews have been glowing, it's gotten awards success already and could be a strong player in many categories. As always, we'll need to see how the rest of the award season plays out, box office, the cultural impact, think pieces and whatever potential controversies will come out. Personally out of the big contenders, I've liked (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) to loved (The Farewell) to LOVED (The Irishman and Parasite) what I've seen so far. Here's hoping this year will be a stronger lineup than last year (where the only films I really had much enthusiasm for out of the lineup were Roma, The Favourite and A Star is Born).

Best Director

Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story 
Sam Mendes, 1917
Greta Gerwig, Little Women 
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman*
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

I'm not vouching Tarantino as the dead cert for Best Director even if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood becomes the big player in awards season - Director/Picture splits have become increasingly common in recent years. QT has never won this achievement but maybe the Academy will call it a day with rewarding the film and his writing. I could easily see them awarding Scorsese again since while his win for The Departed was very, very deserving there was a touch of 'consolation award' to it, so this could very well be their chance to 'properly' award him. I could easily see Gerwig making it in again for Little Women if she conjures up another Lady Bird-esque universal crowdpleaser, Baumbach seems primed for a 'welcome to the club' nomination, and Mendes a 'welcome back to the club' nomination with his first nom since American Beauty. Don't count out Bong Joon-ho though who may well rocketeer his way to a nomination with Parasite's insanely huge critical acclaim and hype.

Best Actress

Awkwafina, The Farewell*
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women 
Renée Zellwegger, Judy*

I'm constantly second-guessing myself for this lineup, not least because I've left out what could be a potential winner in Charlize Theron for playing Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. That's easily the sort of 'transformative' biopic performance the Academy do love which is exactly what will get Zellwegger in for Judy. Harriet has received relatively lukewarm but not negative reviews which means that Cynthia Erivo still has a shot, though no longer the runaway winner some have been predicting her to be. I actually think Awkwafina is a pretty secured for a nomination for The Farewell provided that A24 mount a strong enough campaign for the film, hopefully I won't jinx it. That leaves Johansson who's been getting raves and whom I could easily see winning for that and other reasons I'll get into later on, the overall success that awaits the film from acting accolades perspective; and Ronan who I believe as long as Little Women performs strongly will earn her fourth nomination. 

Best Actor

Robert De Niro, The Irishman* 
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker*
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes 

The big question mark here is Phoenix whose prickly awards season reputation and his film's divisive reception could lead him anywhere from being completely left out of the awards conversation to being nominated to winning the whole thing. I'm not as big on the performance or film as a lot of its advocates nor do I have any vitriol towards it so I'll be interested to see how it all plays out. DiCaprio seems pretty assured of another nomination at this point though I doubt he'll win, De Niro seems like a safe enough bet too and will be deserving, and Driver has been carving out a strong play for the win with critical reception and also the banner year him and Johansson are having. Pryce is my choice for the predicted winner on account of the prestige of the role - playing the Pope of all people -, being the overdue veteran, he's got the reviews, it should all add up but this could easily be a very unpredictable category, with the likes of Cannes winner Antonio Banderas for Pain & Glory*, Taron Egerton for playing Elton John in Rocketman*, and even Eddie Murphy for Dolemite is My Name all having received strong acclaim across the board that could lead to them making their own splashes in the category. 

Best Supporting Actress

Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers*
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit 
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell*

The two nominees I have seen - Lopez's dynamic turn in Hustlers and the heartbreaking performance of Zhou in The Farewell - are meaty roles that should make their way in, the former even if her film doesn't make an impact on the awards scene otherwise, but at this point it does feel like the Bening v Dern show with Lopez being a potential upset. I'm pegging Johansson to ride the momentum of her banner year with another nomination in another big potential awards player and like Jamie Foxx back in 2004, using it to springboard her way to a win. Of course I could just as easily see McKenzie, who's gotten her fair share of acclaim for Jojo Rabbit, getting in instead, Florence Pugh who also has a very promising character to work with in Little Women and is also having her own mainstream breakthrough of sorts, and unfortunately Margot Robbie who despite barely getting anything to do in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood might ride along as a coattail nominee (though maybe she'll be in contention for Bombshell instead?) 

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse* 
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood*
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes 
Al Pacino, The Irishman*
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

I'm actually fairly confident in Pacino's chances. He's won before, that's true, but like Scorsese that was sort of a 'consolation 'award', and this is a very juicy role with a knockout performance that'll be very much in the voters' wheelhouse. Moreover, his biggest competitor at this point, Pitt, won't be campaigning plus he has less of a typical awards-friendly role, though he does have the benefit of category fraud on his side. Dafoe is in a very niche/weird film but he's made it in two years in a row as the sole nominee of his films, the Academy clearly loves him and The Lighthouse has received raves. I could see Hanks breaking his nearly two decades long drought at the Oscars - though I doubt he'll heavily campaign - , and likewise for Hopkins, as these two veterans have very juicy roles that should form the centrepieces of their respective films' award campaigns. Potential spoilers could come in the form of Sterling K. Brown who's received a fair share of acclaim for Waves, Shia Labouef if he chooses to campaign in supporting for his semi-autobiographical portrayal of his father in Honey Boy, Jamie Foxx who's apparently the highlight of Just Mercy, and finally Christian Bale who I'd actually have put in my predictions if they hadn't been so wishy washy about which category placement, he might be placed in lead now but honestly I think supporting is his best shot. 

And as for my other predictions: -

Best Adapted Screenplay 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood*
The Irishman* 
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes  

Best Original Screenplay

Bombshell
The Farewell*
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*

Best Cinematography

1917
The Irishman*
Joker*
The Lighthouse*
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Best Costume Design

The Irishman*
Judy*
Little Women 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Rocketman*

Best Editing

1917
Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman* 
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*

Best Production Design

1917 
The Irishman*
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Parasite*

Best Sound Editing

1917
Ad Astra*
Avengers: Endgame*
Ford v Ferrari 
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

Best Sound Mixing

1917
Ad Astra* 
Avengers: Endgame*
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

Best Animated Feature

Abominable 
Frozen II
Klaus 
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World* 
Toy Story 4*