Best Picture
Ranking the nominees (I've seen):
- Roma (Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron)
- The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos)
- A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)
- Black Panther (Kevin Feige)
- BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)
- Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
- Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King)
- Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)
A lineup I'm not crazy about, given the wide variety of films they could've chosen with this awards season spreading the wealth quite a bit, the Academy could've afforded to be a bit more daring in its choices, but oh well. Roma and The Favourite are terrific choices, among my most beloved films of the year, the former one of the most transformative and the latter one of the most entertaining. A Star is Born is a great choice for a nomination too, and the best version of the story that's been adapted four times now; I feel like the love surrounding it is quickly dissipating though, it'll need some big wins somewhere to help regain momentum.
Even though I had more than a few problems with Black Panther I'm glad it got a nomination, since it is a good superhero film, and important to a lot of people, myself included. BlacKkKlansman is a bit overrated I think, I wouldn't consider it one of Spike Lee's greatest films, but it's certainly a an effective thriller-cum-social commentary. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody both hover around that 'okay-ish' to 'meh' to 'kinda bad' ground, the former is a well-acted buddy comedy for the most part and the latter really nails the Queen performing at Live-Aid sequence, but both are full of problems on various levels, particularly Bohemian Rhapsody.
Vice is just dreadful.
Even though I had more than a few problems with Black Panther I'm glad it got a nomination, since it is a good superhero film, and important to a lot of people, myself included. BlacKkKlansman is a bit overrated I think, I wouldn't consider it one of Spike Lee's greatest films, but it's certainly a an effective thriller-cum-social commentary. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody both hover around that 'okay-ish' to 'meh' to 'kinda bad' ground, the former is a well-acted buddy comedy for the most part and the latter really nails the Queen performing at Live-Aid sequence, but both are full of problems on various levels, particularly Bohemian Rhapsody.
Vice is just dreadful.
Surprises/Snubs:
Eh, Black Panther kind of was a surprise, I guess, being a superhero film and all? But honestly I was predicting it would get in. Every other nominee had tons of precursors that indicated they'd have a good shot at getting in despite several apparent obstacles for some of them (Green Book and the controversy surrounding its director, one of the screenwriters, and its apparent re-working of Don Shirley's life, Bohemian Rhapsody's behind-the-scenes drama).
As for snubs, on a very personal level I was disappointed that out of the possible contenders, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and especially First Man, two of my absolute favourites this year, didn't get in, though it was always going to be a long shot given the relatively lukewarm reception to both this awards season. If Beale Street Could Talk probably was the film that just missed the cut, and other pseudo contenders like Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins Returns might've hung around the margins, but frankly I think the above eight choices were pretty far and ahead the definitive Academy choices.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Roma
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Roma
Best Director
Clockwise from top: Lanthimos, Cuarón, McKay, Pawlikowski, Lee |
- Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
- Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
- Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)
- Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
- Adam McKay (Vice)
As mentioned I don't think Spike Lee's work on BlacKkKlansman is anywhere near his best, but he does have more than a few brilliant scenes in there (anything directly related to infiltrating the Klan and the intensity of going undercover), I do think he's deserving, and happy that he's made something of a comeback. The only nominee out of these four whose work I wasn't a fan of at all was Adam McKay's work on Vice. It's a shame, I've really liked his studio comedies of the past like Anchorman, The Other Guys, I flat-out love Talldega Nights, but I've really disliked his last two attempts at making 'serious' films (though both this and The Big Short are comedies, kinda). Otherwise a very strong lineup.
Surprises/Snubs:
Bradley Cooper not being nominated for A Star is Born is perhaps the biggest surprise of all, and Pawlikowski being nominated in his place is perhaps equally surprising (especially since the latter's film wasn't nominated for Best Picture). I imagine this could be a similar case to Ben Affleck and Argo back in the day where it gained lots of awards traction and love, winning Best Picture, but Affleck's direction was ignored by the Academy, probably because lots of voters just assumed he'd get in and didn't vote for him. Some would say that maybe there's a bias towards actors-turned-directors but I wouldn't buy that since two were nominated last year (Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig), and Peele was a debutant director like Cooper. I wouldn't take this as too much indication that A Star is Born and its Best Picture chances are gone, but this is certainly worth taking into account.
As for snubs, I loved Damien Chazelle and Marielle Heller's work on First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me? respectively, and it might've been nice to see Joel and Ethan Coen slide in since the Academy seemed to like The Ballad of Buster Scruggs a lot more than most awards organisations, but these were always long shots. I was predicting that one of Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, and despite the recent controversies Peter Farrelly for Green Book might've gotten in, but I think the recent awards momentum gained by Cold War and Vice not really losing any put the odds against them.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
- Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
- Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
- Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
- Christian Bale (Vice)
Haven't seen Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) yet.
Well this is both a somewhat expected, and rather unexpected lineup. Anyway, Bradley Cooper gives what I'd say is quite easily the best performance in this lineup (that I've seen) in A Star is Born, and I'm very glad that his passion project was awarded in this regard (and I imagine the director snub might actually aid his chances of contending for the win in this category). Rami Malek's portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody was very strong too, particularly in his 'performance' scenes, and actually managed to stand out from the mediocre-to-kinda bad quality of much of the rest of the film.
I was expecting to hate Viggo Mortensen in Green Book but he surprised me by how entertaining he was in a kind of thinly written and somewhat problematic (though nowhere near his co-star in that regard) role, actually creating a genuine character rather than just an Italian-American stereotype. Christian Bale's portrayal of Dick Cheney in Vice isn't bad, he nails the impersonation, but that's about it, a good SNL impersonation. There's no depth to the portrayal of the ex-Vice President, more the script's fault than his, but it really is one of his least interesting performances.
Surprises/Snubs:
No real surprises on the awards front. I suppose I would have expected John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman or Ethan Hawke in First Reformed over Willem Dafoe, but I suppose never underestimate the power of veteran status to carry oneself to a nomination, despite the fact that Dafoe was the only nod from his film. Hawke has been carving a storm this awards season through the critics' awards for his performance in First Reformed and it's a damn shame he couldn't pull through in this final stretch - though his snubs at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG hurt his chances a great deal. Steve Coogan and John C. Reilly actually might've hurt one another's chances by being nominated at BAFTA and the Globes respectively but not together for/in separate categories for Stan & Ollie but again, never even close in all honesty.
There's a lot of other great performances this awards season which I'd have liked to have seen have more of a fighting chance, which I'll get onto at soon, but the complete shutout of Ryan Gosling in First Man, my favourite performance of the year, stings in particular.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Well this is both a somewhat expected, and rather unexpected lineup. Anyway, Bradley Cooper gives what I'd say is quite easily the best performance in this lineup (that I've seen) in A Star is Born, and I'm very glad that his passion project was awarded in this regard (and I imagine the director snub might actually aid his chances of contending for the win in this category). Rami Malek's portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody was very strong too, particularly in his 'performance' scenes, and actually managed to stand out from the mediocre-to-kinda bad quality of much of the rest of the film.
I was expecting to hate Viggo Mortensen in Green Book but he surprised me by how entertaining he was in a kind of thinly written and somewhat problematic (though nowhere near his co-star in that regard) role, actually creating a genuine character rather than just an Italian-American stereotype. Christian Bale's portrayal of Dick Cheney in Vice isn't bad, he nails the impersonation, but that's about it, a good SNL impersonation. There's no depth to the portrayal of the ex-Vice President, more the script's fault than his, but it really is one of his least interesting performances.
Surprises/Snubs:
No real surprises on the awards front. I suppose I would have expected John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman or Ethan Hawke in First Reformed over Willem Dafoe, but I suppose never underestimate the power of veteran status to carry oneself to a nomination, despite the fact that Dafoe was the only nod from his film. Hawke has been carving a storm this awards season through the critics' awards for his performance in First Reformed and it's a damn shame he couldn't pull through in this final stretch - though his snubs at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG hurt his chances a great deal. Steve Coogan and John C. Reilly actually might've hurt one another's chances by being nominated at BAFTA and the Globes respectively but not together for/in separate categories for Stan & Ollie but again, never even close in all honesty.
There's a lot of other great performances this awards season which I'd have liked to have seen have more of a fighting chance, which I'll get onto at soon, but the complete shutout of Ryan Gosling in First Man, my favourite performance of the year, stings in particular.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
- Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
- Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
- Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
- Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
- Glenn Close (The Wife)
Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a great performance in one of the best films of the year, kudos to the Academy for recognising her employing best assets as a comedic actress while exploring astounding dramatic depths. I could say the same for Olivia Colman in The Favourite, she's been one of the best actresses working for a while, both on television and film, and I'm so happy to see her nominated for her brilliant portrayal of Queen Anne, more on that later. Hopefully she wins.
Lady Gaga in A Star is Born and Yalitza Aparicio in Roma are two great choices for nominations too, both give terrific debut leading turns, without a hint of amateurishness in either performance. Unfortunately, I have to say that my least favourite performance out of this lot is perhaps the most likely to win, Glenn Close isn't bad in The Wife and her last 15 minutes or so of her performance is pretty good, but for the most part this is just one of the least interesting performances she's ever given, especially if you contrast it to say, Dangerous Liaisons.
Lady Gaga in A Star is Born and Yalitza Aparicio in Roma are two great choices for nominations too, both give terrific debut leading turns, without a hint of amateurishness in either performance. Unfortunately, I have to say that my least favourite performance out of this lot is perhaps the most likely to win, Glenn Close isn't bad in The Wife and her last 15 minutes or so of her performance is pretty good, but for the most part this is just one of the least interesting performances she's ever given, especially if you contrast it to say, Dangerous Liaisons.
Surprises/Snubs:
Aparicio was definitely the big surprise for me out of this lineup, and I have to say her nomination helps Roma's chances at a Best Picture win a great deal. I expected Emily Blunt to get in for Mary Poppins Returns but once again, like so many other years, she's gone the route of nailing a great deal of the precursors but falling short at the last hurdle, I certainly hope she'll be nominated some point soon though as she's a real talent (and did Julie Andrews proud as Poppins). Viola Davis also had a very outside shot at the category with her BAFTA nomination for Widows, but that was quite the long shot, as did Toni Collette for her terrific performance in Hereditary, but that was an even longer shot.
No other lead actress performance that I really loved this year really had a chance, Thomas McKenzie in Leave No Trace was campaigned in the wrong category all season long and her film got absolutely no noise on the big awards front, Charlize Theron in Tully was never going to happen despite the critical acclaim, and Carey Mulligan's work in Wildlife was completely absent this awards season, I loved those performances but I suppose I should be happy enough with the lineup as it is.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Glenn Close (The Wife)
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Glenn Close (The Wife)
- Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
- Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
- Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
- Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
- Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Mahershala Ali has some REALLY iffy moments in Green Book, particularly in his drunken scenes, he's really a co-lead here with Mortensen, and the whole character as written is very lacking in its serious elements, but he does have excellent chemistry with Viggo Mortensen, and knocks it out of the park in his two big dramatic moments, but big step down from his phenomenal Oscar-winning work. Same could be said in that regard for Sam Rockwell, who is actually my favourite part of Vice, as he's quite funny as George W. Bush and gives a good impersonation, but is easily my fifth choice in this lineup.
Surprises/Snubs:
This category was particularly annoying across awards season due to its predictability, though there was another prime contender in Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, though the lack of love shown to his film as a whole (rightfully so, it's not very good) is kind of telling in retrospect. I was betting on Michael B. Jordan to get in for Black Panther and he might've been somewhat close since it was nominated for Best Picture, but lack of precursors definitely hurt his chances. There are notable supporting performances in this category which deserved but never really had a chance here, I'll get onto them at a later point.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
- Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
- Emma Stone (The Favourite)
- Marina de Tavira (Roma)
- Amy Adams (Vice)
Haven't seen Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) yet.
Now here's some cases of even more egregious category fraud than Mahershala Ali, as Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in The Favourite are undoubtedly co-leads alongside Olivia Colman, in fact you could make a far stronger argument for Colman in supporting. Having said that, I have nothing to complain about with regards to their nominations as they give two of the best performances of 2018 which I will discuss in further later on. I hope either of them wins, Regina King unseen, though they've both got Oscars already so perhaps unlikely.
Marina de Tavira is terrific in Roma and gives yet another great performance that helps to amplify Cuaron's vision, plus I do love seeing under-the-radar (relatively speaking) actresses get a boost from this category. Amy Adams, an actress I've frequently liked, often loved, in the past, unfortunately might win this time around for her underwhelming performance in Vice, not so much the performance itself which is fine, but it's just with such a boring and uninteresting 'supportive wife to president' character without much depth.
Surprises/Snubs:
I was banking on Michelle Yeoh making a dark horse entrance with Crazy Rich Asians, alas it was not to be, but I had my reasons. Would've liked to see Claire Foy for First Man here, I loved her like I love pretty much every element of the film. Can't think of any other performances that surprised me with them being snubbed, maybe Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased since she's an awards season darling, but that film got absolutely NO traction whatsoever this awards season. Emily Blunt had an outside chance earlier on in awards season with A Quiet Place and I wouldn't be surprised if she just missed out. Out of the nominees, Marina de Tavira is definitely the biggest surprise, I had no idea she was even in contention, and I'm sure even the most seasoned awards season expert was probably surprised. My favourite performance in this category comes in a film which was completely shut out, I hope to discuss it in greater depth in a future post.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Original Screenplay
Clockwise from top left: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and Schrader, Cuaron, McKay, Davis and McNamara; Vallelonga, Farrelly, Currie |
- The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
- Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
- First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
- Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)
- Vice (Adam McKay)
Okay, this is definitely a surprising category. Easily my favourite of these is well, The Favourite which is a brilliantly written and meticulously crafted battle of the wits that manages to create three equally compelling journeys of three women who switch roles throughout in such unique ways (as well as being a bloody hilarious film).
Outside of The Favourite, I wouldn't say the screenplay either stands outs, or is a particularly praiseworthy aspect of the other four films. The screenplays to Roma and First Reformed are quality scripts, in particular Roma has a great sense of place and time and I thought absolutely managed to bring the story of its protagonist to pivotal emotionally powerful moments, though it is indeed Cuaron's direction which stands out the most. I would say that the direction stands out more than the screenplay in both films, again particularly with Roma, and in the case of First Reformed its weaknesses are greatly amplified by its central performance, like a few of Paul Schrader's other screenplays to be honest.
Green Book is in my opinion a hit-and-miss screenplay, though emphasis on the 'miss' part. It does work as a buddy comedy in its purest form, I did like a lot of the more lighthearted banter, and Tony Lip's general characterisation does work. What I did dislike was when the film tries to take a turn for the serious. It just doesn't work when it tries to deal with issues of racism in Lip's character, and perhaps even worse Don Shirley's (apparently largely fictionalised) issues of self-identity crisis. At least it's not as downright awful as Vice though which is just a terrible screenplay, in that it provides absolutely no insight into Dick Cheney while simultaneously being so obnoxiously pretentious, and pseudo-intellectual in its ambitions and failures. It doesn't help that it doesn't even make its uninteresting ideas palatable through a digestible structure, as its haphazard blend of narration/fourth wall breaking and often ill-advised humour, with attempts at a 'serious' investigation into American politics, is largely a failure.
Surprises/Snubs:
I expected Eighth Grade to maybe make it in, but at the last minute switched to a prediction for First Reformed, which worked out rather nicely. Surprising that this is Paul Schrader's first nomination, good on him. THANK GOD neither Bohemian Rhapsody didn't make it in, now that would've been an unpleasant though not altogether unexpected surprise. Sorry to Bother You would've been a nice inclusion too, but I think it was definitely too weird for the Academy's taste.
My prediction for the winner (for now)?: The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Clockwise from the top: Can You Ever Forgive Me, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born (1937, 1954, 1978) |
Well-detailed thoughts. I too didn't think the screenplay for Roma wasn't too shabby, although the directing and cinematography are king in that film.
ReplyDeleteChristopher Robin is an inspired pick for that category, and yeah I'd stay away from Jurassic Park/World/2/does it matter?
I was ready to give up on this awards season, but today's Oscar nominations still gives me hope, even if they were too generous to Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody.