FINAL Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards: Will/Should Wins

Links go to my 'Oscar Nominees' posts which rank the nominated films in their respective categories. 

Documentary/Live-Action Short

WILL WIN - Edith + Eddie for Documentary Short, Dekalb Elementary for Live-Action Short.

SHOULD WIN - I haven't seen any of the nominees, unfortunately, though I've heard a great deal of positive response to Dekalb Elementary as an incendiary and timely work. EDIT: Just realized Edith + Eddie is online, I'll try to get to it tomorrow.

Animated Short

WILL WIN - Dear Basketball, Glen Keane's tribute to Los Angeles celebrity darling Kobe Bryant's legacy.

SHOULD WIN - the two shorts I've managed to see, Lou and Dear Basketball, were both great, but I'll be rooting for my NBA team and one of my all-time favourite players on Oscar night (what a time to be alive).

Best Foreign Language Film 

WILL WIN - A Fantastic Woman. Alongside Loveless the most universally praised of the nominees, and though both are rather timely and topical films I give Chile the slight edge over Russia, particularly since star Daniela Vega will be presenting at the ceremony.

SHOULD WIN - Vastly preferred A Fantastic Woman over Loveless and The Square, which I still liked, and will definitely be rooting for it to win. Wish Foxtrot had gotten in, though.

Best Documentary 

WILL WIN - Faces Places seems to have gotten the most universal praise.

SHOULD WIN - I really want to see most of these. Icarus is the only one I've seen, which is a very solid documentary.

Animated Movie 

WILL WIN - Pixar usually dominates in this category, and in a year like this, Coco fits both the general narrative of the awards season, as well as fills all the blanks for the usual sort of winner.

SHOULD WIN - I've actually only gotten round to seeing two of these, Coco and Loving Vincent. Loving Vincent is great and audacious, but I have to say that I preferred Coco a great deal more just for its emotional impact and spirit.

Visual Effects

WILL WIN - War for the Planet of the Apes as a sort of 'lifetime achievement' award for the franchise. Also, nowadays this category seems to favour more 'atypical' sort of visual effects (i.e. Ex Machina in 2015) and mo-cap (The Jungle Book last year).

SHOULD WIN - Blade Runner 2049 easily. It won't but it should.

Sound Mixing

WILL WIN - Baby Driver for its superlative blend of soundtrack, sound effects, and rhythms.

SHOULD WIN - Baby Driver is a great choice, but personally I'd go for Blade Runner 2049. Though the snub of Phantom Thread still irks me to no end.

Sound Editing

WILL WIN - Dunkirk. War films usually do well in this category (it was surprising to see Hacksaw Ridge lose out in this category while winning in Sound Mixing last year, though I can't complain about Arrival taking the top prize), and Nolan's masterful war film is so defined by its sound effects.

SHOULD WIN - Dunkirk, too. It's one of the best sounding films of the decade, period.

Original Song

WILL WIN - 'Remember Me' from Coco. It's catchy, it's by Pixar, it's the crux of the film's emotional core, it speaks universal values of family within its lyrics, it's a crowd-pleaser. It ticks every box.

SHOULD WIN - undoubtedly 'Remember Me'. This would be a tougher choice if they'd nominated 'Visions of Gideon' instead of 'Mystery of Love', though.

Original Score

WILL WIN - Alexandre Desplat's The Shape of Water seems to be the shoo-in here, as it strikes the fine line between being too 'familiar' (another John Williams Star Wars score, Carter Burwell's Fargo-esque work) and too 'experimental' (Jonny Greenwod's work on Phantom Thread, Hans Zimmer's crazy Dunkirk score)

SHOULD WIN - hey, I love Desplat's score, and like the year he won for The Grand Budapest Hotel I hope people don't hold a grudge against him for beating Hans Zimmer again, it'll be a deserved win. But Phantom Thread is easily my favourite score of the year.

Production Design

WILL WIN - The Shape of Water is the most stylized and period piece-centric film of the lot, and is fashioned in a sort of old Hollywood tribute, so I think it will easily win this.

SHOULD WIN - and hey, why not. I loved the work on the film and it's easily my favourite of the year.

Makeup/Hairstyling

WILL WIN - after Suicide Squad became an Oscar winner last year, look to more conventional Academy fodder to win in this category for Gary Oldman's double chin in Darkest Hour which is easily the most showiest makeup work in the category.

SHOULD WIN - There were other films with more impressive makeup work this year (where the hell were Logan and The Shape of Water, come on guys you loved the film) but Darkest Hour will be a deserving winner.

Editing

WILL WIN - only five films over the last three decades - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, The Matrix, Black Hawk Down, The Bourne Ultimatum, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - have won Best Editing without being nominated for Best Picture. Based purely on the fast-paced, action-orientated trend of these genre picture anomalies, I'm going with Baby Driver though don't be surprised if I, Tonya upsets the upset.

SHOULD WIN - Much as I was impressed by the editing to Baby Driver, I'd much rather see either Dunkirk or I, Tonya get the love in that regard.

Costume Design 

WILL WIN - The Academy clearly loved Phantom Thread, and what better way to reward it than in this category, since the film is literally all about costume design?

SHOULD WIN - Phantom Thread, I'd say its costume design verges on all-time great.

Cinematography

WILL WIN - Some bloke who did the cinematography for some sci-fi sequel this past year. What's that? Dariusz Wolski for Alien Covenant? Er, yeah. (I'm trying not to jinx this guys)

SHOULD WIN - 15th time's the charm, I hope.

Best Original Screenplay

WILL WIN - The WGA precursor indicates Get Out, the Golden Globes and BAFTAs indicate Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and the general tide of sentiment is giving Lady Bird a push. I'm going with Get Out, because of a gut feeling I have about Best Picture.

SHOULD WIN - I loved all three of the screenplays in serious contention to win, but Get Out takes the cake for me as the most 'perfect' of these scripts. It just works for me on absolutely every level.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WILL WIN - Call Me by Your Name has this in the bag, with it being the sole Best Picture nominee of the lot, the most Oscar-friendly source material, and the highly respected James Ivory penning the material.

SHOULD WIN - It won't win but Logan was one of my favourite screenplays of last year, it did so much to reninvent the whole X-Men ethos into something truly resonant on an emotional and visceral level. And if I'm honest, much as I enjoyed Call Me by Your Name I don't think the screenplay is one of its most outstanding aspects.

Best Supporting Actor 

WILL WIN - Sam Rockwell has this in the bag for his drastic supporting arc in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, he's won essentially every major precursor.

SHOULD WIN - Well Rockwell gives my favourite supporting actor performance of the year, and I'm escastic if he wins, though if I'm honest, I'm tempted to root for a Willem Dafoe upset just because he's my preferred actor of the two, though I love both, and he's an overdue veteran too.

Best Supporting Actress

WILL WIN - Allison Janney, equally, has this pretty much in the bag barring a last-minute Laurie Metcalf upset.

SHOULD WIN - honestly, I'm kind of annoyed that Janney will win. She's good, and I love her film, but I really would love to see the more subtle, nuanced and altogether powerful work of Lesley Manville or Laurie Metcalf get an (extremely unlikely) upset.

Best Actor

WILL WIN - Gary Oldman was a foregone conclusion to win this a while ago, and his wins at the Globes and BAFTAs have only solidified this. Historical figure, overdue and underrated veteran, ticks all 'em boxes.

SHOULD WIN - Oldman is arguably my favourite actor working today in terms of his body of work, and I'm extremely happy to see him back in high-profile roles, and getting the accolades he's long been deserving of. Having said that, I'd be much more supportive of either Daniels, Kaluuya or Day-Lewis, to win it, especially Day-Lewis.

Best Actress

WILL WIN - Frances McDormand has somehow managed to secure her win as an almost sure thing despite the category looking like one of the most competitive in years - it seemed like Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins might have a shot, intially, but this really seems like McDormand's to lose.

SHOULD WIN - McDormand gives my favourite performance of 2017 in film after Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky, so yeah, I'm in full support of her winning her second Academy Award.

Best Director

WILL WIN - the loveable cuddly Guillermo del Toro! This will be the fourth Mexican director in the past five years to win the award (the very American Damien Chazelle being the c-c-c-combo breaker last year). And given that I think The Shape of Water is highly likely to win the big prize, if my hot take prediction doesn't go smoothly, then it seems only even more of a guarantee.

SHOULD WIN - anyone from this lineup could win and I'd be more than happy. Paul Thomas Anderson is my personal preference, but really any one of these nominees would be a great winner.

Best Picture 

WILL WIN - Let's break it down. The Post and Darkest Hour, no chance barring some repeat of last year's shenanigans (i.e. Gary Oldman's envelope being left onstage). Dunkirk just doesn't quite fit into this year's awards narrative, unfortunately. Call Me by Your Name hasn't gotten enough precursors, and it missed out on categories (Best Supporting Actor, Best Director) which would have strengthened its case, although I do think it still has a chance given that there are many who love the film. I know some are banking on a Phantom Thread upset on account of it being a favourite of many Academy voters (allegedly), but I'm not feeling it yet.

Which leaves Lady Bird, Get Out, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Lady Bird 

• On one hand, it's perhaps the most 'universal' in its appeal among these nominees, with very little, if any, critical backlashes on its praise. Mark Kermode made an argument in favour of it winning on account of it being liked by many, disliked by few. Also, it fits in the general narrative of the awards season of giving female filmmakers their just dues. 
• On the other hand, it hasn't won many precursors outside of the Golden Globes, though that in itself might just be enough. Also, and I hate this argument in general, but it might be too 'light' on the social commentary/subtext angles to win.

Get Out

• On one hand, it's also pretty universally liked by audiences and critics alike, is as 'timely' a film as can be, and just seems like the great underdog story the Academy does love every once in a while. 
• On the other hand, it was an early February release, and only got four nominations. 

The Shape of Water

• On one hand, it has the most number of nominations, is poised to win Best Director, and is a loving tribute to old Hollywood which you just know the Academy loves.
• On the other hand, it's a film about a romance with a fishman, are we sure the Academy are ready for that kind of stuff yet? Well, maybe. I dunno.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• On one hand, it's won the BAFTA and the Globes, in addition to many other precursors, has two near-surefire acting winners.
• On the other hand, its content and themes are in stark contrast, even clashing with the general awards narrative of recent weeks, and the backlash/controversy surrounding it has reached La La Land levels.

I'm going with Get Out purely because I think it has the least stacked against it in terms of reasons for its content not translating to Academy voters, plus the stuff it has against it are kind of incidental at this point, if it carried on its momentum all the way from February there's no reason to think it'll stop now, it's won a fair amount of precursors, it missed out on the Globes and BAFTAs but since then it's picked up added momentum. I'm looking to it pulling off a Spotlight, winning both Original Screenplay and Best Picture while The Shape of Water playing the role of The Revenant/Mad Max Fury Road, winning a slew of technical awards, and Three Billboards doing a more presitigious performance of the Dallas Buyer's Club awards run.

SHOULD WIN - I'd be over-the-hill with any of Phantom Thread, Three Billboards, Get Out or Dunkirk winning, would love to see The Shape of Water or Lady Bird win, and would quite like to see Call Me by Your Name win. So honestly, I think I'm going to be pretty happy no matter what.