(Very Early) Oscar Predictions 2018 - Major Categories

Best Picture

Mudbound
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
Katheryn Bigelow's 'Untitled Detroit Project'
Wonderstruck
Marshall
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
Darkest Hour
Mary Magdalene
The Snowman

Daring early prediction? I wouldn't say so. After the small-scale winners of Spotlight and Moonlight in the past two years, the Academy might look to go back to awarding the big boys, and  they certainly don't seem to be getting any bigger than Christopher Nolan's WWII epic. As for the other nominees, they all seem to tick the award boxes, though I might switch the more unpredictable quantities of Wonderstruck and the possible late release of The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara for Battle of the Sexes and hm, you know what, maybe Logan could make a play for the big awards?

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Kathryn Bigelow, 'Untitled Detroit Project'
Steven Speilberg, The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
Dee Rees, Mudbound

Like 2016, I expect all the Oscars to fall perfectly in line with the Best Picture nominees. Bigelow is the only one I'm extremely confident in, though. Speilberg hasn't had much success in this category as of late and I might replace him with perhaps Garth Davis for Mary Magdalene, or heck even Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049. Guadagnino has gotten early praise, so I'm keeping him in for now.

Best Actor

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, 'Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project')
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Cruise, American Made
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Oldman's role as Winston Churchill looks like it could be quite something, and I certainly hope it actualizes into an amazing performance. Day-Lewis could get in and provide some stiff competition if his film comes out in time, Chalamet could be the newbie entrant, Cruise could make a comeback, and I'm actually fairly confident in Boseman's chances if his film does well enough, since the role of Thurgood Marshall, the first African-American Supreme Court Justice, seems pretty meaty, Look out too for Michael Fassbender in The Snowman.

Best Actress

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Rooney Mara, Mary Magdelene
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Bening failed to garner a nomination for her work in 20th Century Women this year which was a shame, and I feel like her next role as the cancer-striken, ageing Gloria Grahame might just be the thing to garner her that long-sought for win. Martin McDonagh has never had a performance in his films nominated for an Oscar and I'm looking to Frances McDormand to break that trend. The jury's still out on whether or not Mudbound is an ensemble film, but Mulligan's surprisingly only been nominated once so far in her career so look out for her, Mara is going to be carrying a religious epic on her shoulders, and Stone should be able to ride the La La Land momentum well enough to garner her third nomination with renowned tennis player Billie Jean King.

Best Supporting Actor

Jason Mitchell/Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Sterling K. Brown/Josh Gad, Marshall
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

This is where things are always hardest to predict; last year around this time, I'd have never imagined that Liam Neeson would be shut out completely from the awards season, Mahershala Ali and Dev Patel would be battling it out, or that Jeff Bridges would be supporting. Anyway, for Marshall and Mudbound we'll have to wait and see who gets the largest amount of praise from the critics, if I had to pick now I'd say Mitchell and Gad, though who knows. This is the category I'm probably going to be provnen most wrong in since none of these gentleman have ever been nominated, or really even come close to, being nominated for an Oscar. I feel Ben Mendelsohn could find his way in if Darkest Hour does well enough, and I get the feeling that Call Me By Your Name is the Manchester by the Sea of this year. Hammer might be campaigned in either category, I'd imagine, so if he's campaigned in lead I'll switch him out for someone from Dunkirk, maybe Mark Rylance, maybe Cillian Murphy, maybe even Kenneth Branagh, it's too early to tell. And call me crazy, but I could see Patrick Stewart getting in; respected veteran who's never gotten a nomination giving career-best work.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Bilge, Mudbound
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Lesley Manville, 'Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project'

Another unpredictable category. For now I'd consider Bilge the strong frontrunner, she's gotten a lot of praise for her work in Mudbound. Moore could find herself in the Oscar race again for a supposedly juicy role in another Todd Haynes film, though she might have competition with Michelle Williams, see thoughts above on Mendelsohn for Scott Thomas, and Melissa Leo is one of those actresses I always consider to be in award contention (and she's playing a Mother Superior of all things). Manville's the most unknown quantity, I imagine some other ensemble player in some other big film might find their way in instead, but I have a feeling PTA has crafted a juicy role for the veteran who's never been nominated.

Best Original Screenplay

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Battle of the Sexes
Marshall
Dunkirk
Downsizing

I'm expecting Dunkrik to be the huge award darling, so this extends to this category I'd say. But I think Marshall has the big chance in this category. The other nominees are fairly self-explanatory, and though I expect Downsizing to be one of those Alexander Payne films that misses out on the big categories, I'm sure he'll find traction for his screenplay as always.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Mudbound
Call Me By Your Name
Wonderstruck
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
Kathryn Bigelow's 'Untitled Detroit Project')

Again, I believe Call Me By Your Name will be the Manchester by the Sea this year, and this may well extend to its screenplay chances.