BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Sully
I think the big surprise here is Sully which I'd thought would be purely a Tom Hanks campaign around awards season time (and he gives a very good performance in it). I'm happy about that; I liked the film very much. Haven't seen any of the other nominees besides Arrival, which really is a fantastic, although I'm not sure how much it'll translate on throughout awards season; and Hell or High Water, which I liked a great deal, though did not love it to the extent pretty much everyone I know who's seen it has. I've heard mixed reviews for . All the other films I've heard good to rave reviews for, especially Moonlight and Hacksaw Ridge and of course the ostensible frontrunner La La Land - I can't wait to see them all, especially Hacksaw Ridge.
National Board of Review Win -
Manchester by the Sea
and the other top films,
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hail, Caesar!
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Moonlight
Patriots Day
Silence
Sully
Again, Sully - looks like I've been underestimating its chances. Manchester by the Sea winning NBR does boost its Best Picture nomination prospects, and the other usual suspects (Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight) here as well. Hidden Figures is coming on surprisingly strongly (I'm intrigued to see it) and I'm surprised Patriots Day and Hail, Caesar! are on the list since the former hasn't had much awards buzz thus far yet, and the latter had a relatively muted critical response for a Coen Brothers film.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - La La Land; NBR's love for Manchester by the Sea bodes well for its prospects, but La La Land's been a frontrunner for so long that it'd be foolish to discount it now at this point.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Tom Hanks – Sully
Denzel Washington – Fences
National Board of Review Win -
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Well Affleck's started off this awards season with a bang - and if the critics are to be believed, he's Robert Ford-level great in it and if that's true, couldn't be more deserving. Not surprised at any of the other Critics Choice nominees; Hanks gives a very solid performance in Sully and a nom here should help his case (though the Academy might pull another Captain Phillips on him), and of course Washington is all but a lock for a nom at this rate. Edgerton, Garfield and Gosling have all gotten rave reviews for their work in critically acclaimed films, and I think about 2 out of those 3 will get in; my guess at this point in time would be Garfield and Gosling because of the love for their films, though the subject matter of Edgerton's film and this also being arguably his 'breakout' lead role, could benefit him
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - Denzel Washington; though Affleck has the win from NBR, so he's gaining ground.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Arrival
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
National Board of Review Winner -
Amy Adams - Arrival
Boy am I glad Adams is getting such love; it's my second-favourite performance of the year after Millie Bobby Brown in Stranger Things. Haven't seen any of the other nominees, but Negga, Portman and Stone have been getting tremendous reviews, and Stone in particular has a potential awards sweep force behind her in La La Land. I can't really imagine any of these three missing out, but if I had to say one it'd probably be Negga which would be unfortunate, since she's a very talented actress, her performance is apparently amazing and a breakthrough nomination would be tremendous. Bening and Huppert make for the veterans in the race now; Huppert won a Gotham award recently and Bening is one of those actresses who's been nominated countless times but never one, so this could be it.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? Natalie Portman, Jackie. It hasn't done so well in other categories thus far which could mean two things, either the film is not that loved or that Portman will be the sole focus of all the love. I'm going with the latter for now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Ben Foster – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
National Board of Review Winner -
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Well looks like Hell or High Water's a thing now. Very glad about that, even though I'd say that Bridges should probably be placed in lead, though supporting is not a terrible case of category fraud. It seems like Chris Pine won't be getting any awards love (which is a shame, he was very good), but Bridges (who I thought was really, really good, and who could go up in my esteem on re-watch) and Foster (who I thought was amazing, my #2 for the year so far in Supporting) were tremendous. Between the two I'd pick Foster, if only because I truly think he is supporting, and moreover he could get that first Academy Award nom that would do his future projects wonders. Shannon is the best part of the flawed Nocturnal Animals so I'm glad to see him get into awards conversations for the second year in the row; Patel is by all accounts category fraud but we'll see about that, Ali has a huge critical success and an apparently juicy role by all accounts, and Hedges has gotten some excellent reviews too. No Liam Neeson here, which is not entirely a surprise; but I'm sure he's still in the thick of the race.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - Still Liam Neeson, Silence. Although Bridges is gaining ground.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Janelle Monáe – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
National Board of Review Winner -
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Monáe is the big surprise her, and with a bit more of this sort of momentum I think she could take on the awards scene with some noms. The other nominees have all been to one extent or the other in awards conversation for quite a while; Davis has the juiciest role by all accounts, even though if based on the play, some say she should be lead, and to be fair she looks incredible in that trailer. Harris, and Williams though have small but apparently extremely powerful roles in their respective films, while Kidman and Gerwig seem to be more along the lines of truly 'supportive' roles.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - Viola Davis if Casey Affleck continues to dominate the Best Actor scene; Naomie Harris if Denzel takes the lead.
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Denzel Washington – Fences
National Board of Review Winner -
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Right, I could definitely see Jenkins winning this. La La Land will most likely dominate a lot of the awards, and I could imagine a scenario where Moonlight comes second in pretty much every category it competes; but the raves it's been getting have been tremendous, so if the film is a hit with the Academy they'll grant it the win. Anyway, the rest of the nominees are very straightforward and predictable. Slightly surprised not to see Clint Eastwood on here, but Chazelle is almost a dead cert for a nomination, Gibson for all his controversies has gotten rave reviews for his direction and has won countless awards for his directorial work in the past, and Lonergan, Mackenzie and Washington (who could possibly become a double nominee for his work on Fences) have the critical acclaim for their respective films behind them. I'm not sure what this all means for Villeneuve and Arrival but if it translates to more success, all the better; his work on it was amazing.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - Barry Jenkins, Moonlight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthimis Filippou – The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Nichols – Loving
Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water
National Board of Review Winner -
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
I feel all signs point towards Lonergan's script being the big winner of awards season; it appears to be the sort of small-scale, intimate film the Academy favours in this category nowadays. With Spotlight winning last year, I could see it translating to momentum for Manchester by the Sea winning this year. I'm surprised The Lobster is on here, I thought it was a fun and quirky film but nothing awards-worthy; but I am glad that Hell or High Water is on here too since its screenplay was my favourite thing about the film.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Luke Davies – Lion
Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals
Eric Heisserer – Arrival
Todd Komarnicki – Sully
Allison Schroeder/Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures
August Wilson – Fences
National Board of Review Winner -
Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese - Silence
Okay then...hm. I've actually seen three of the CCA nominees already; Arrival has a great script (though a great deal of one's appreciation for it comes down to the handling of its big twist), Sully has a solid and unfussy one that I really liked, and Nocturnal Animals' script was actually the worst part of the film, in my opinion. Some of Amy Adams' lines in that were the most atrocious stuff I've seen all year, and all her 'real' scenes with Armie Hammer, Jake Gyllnehaal and especially Laura Linney are...eugh. I still like the film but it's problematic in that regard. Lion and Hidden Figures figure to be the underdogs in the race, and of course Fences is in there, it's a script based on an acclaimed stage play. Cocks and Scorsese gaining some love for Silence though is a very good sign for them and the film.
At this point, who am I predicting to win the Oscar? - August Wilson – Fences
The other Critics Choice Award noms:
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Alex R. Hibbert – Moonlight
Lewis MacDougall – A Monster Calls
Madina Nalwanga – Queen of Katwe
Sunny Pawar - Lion
Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
20th Century Women
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Stéphane Fontaine – Jackie
James Laxton – Moonlight
Seamus McGarvey – Nocturnal Animals
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
Bradford Young – Arrival
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival – Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte/André Valade
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig/James Hambidge, Anna Pinnock
Jackie – Jean Rabasse, Véronique Melery
La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
Live by Night – Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh
BEST EDITING
Tom Cross – La La Land
John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge
Blu Murray – Sully
Nat Sanders/Joi McMillon - Moonlight
Joe Walker – Arrival
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Consolata Boyle – Florence Foster Jenkins
Madeline Fontaine – Jackie
Joanna Johnston – Allied
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh – Love & Friendship
Mary Zophres – La La Land
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
A Monster Calls
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST ACTION MOVIE
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Benedict Cumberbatch – Doctor Strange
Matt Damon – Jason Bourne
Chris Evans – Captain America: Civil War
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Gal Gadot – Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Scarlett Johansson – Captain America: Civil War
Margot Robbie – Suicide Squad
Tilda Swinton – Doctor Strange
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool
The Edge of Seventeen
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Ryan Gosling – The Nice Guys
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Dwayne Johnson – Central Intelligence
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship
Sally Field – Hello, My Name Is Doris
Kate McKinnon – Ghostbusters
Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Star Trek Beyond
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Elle
BEST SONG
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
City of Stars – La La Land
Drive It Like You Stole It – Sing Street
How Far I’ll Go - Moana
The Rules Don’t Apply – Rules Don’t Apply
BEST SCORE
Nicholas Britell – Moonlight
Jóhann Jóhannsson – Arrival
Justin Hurwitz – La La Land
Micachu – Jackie
Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka – Lion
I think La La Land will probably win Best Picture. I think Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea both stand some chances but I don't really seem them winning at the moment.
ReplyDeleteCasey Affleck seems to be doing very well and I'm glad about that. I still think Denzel Washington will win, although I hope I won't as I really don't care for him (I might like him in Fences, who knows, but still the fact that he could be a three-time Oscar winner while much better actors never even won once pisses me off a little bit).
I think Stone will be Best Actress. Portman has rave reviews but I don't see her winning, and I think the year is too strong for Bening to pull off a veteran win. Adams' performance seems like the kind of subtle performance that critics love and reward but that ultimately does not win the Oscar (such as Rampling and Ronan last year or Cotillard two years ago).
I think supporting actor is still rather open in terms of a winner. I'm glad for Shannon being prased for his performance even if I might have preferred Taylor-Johnson in the same movie. As for Patel being category fraud I think that's probably true although I've heard he doesn't show up in the movie until an hour into it, so it might not be a fraud such as terrible as Vikander and Mara last year.
I think Viola Davis will win and I guess I'm not anticipating her performance as much as you do. I think Davis is a fine actress but she also has a tendency for going a bit over-the-top and in the trailer of Fences it seems to be the case there as well. I hope I'm proved wrong, but I suspect I won't love the performance much. I'm curious about Harris' performance as I've heard mixed opinions about her work, and I can't wait to see Kidman's performance as a) I've heard she kills it in her big scene b) I'm so glad she's finally getting some recognition again.
Picture: I'd put money down on La La Land even at this point.
ReplyDeleteDirector: Wouldn't quite put money down on Chazelle, since the Academy seems very open to splitting right now, but I'd still predict him to win.
Actor: Washington, I just don't see Affleck winning.
Actress: Stone possibly with ease now, since Portman is not even sweeping critically.
Supporting Actor: Sticking with Neeson until shown otherwise. I do think it's a rather open category though.
Supporting Actress: Davis easily, I feel even with Washington winning lead. They'll spread the wealth sometimes, but don't always.